Gold prices in Bangladesh have hit a record high, with 22-carat gold currently selling at Tk 200,726 per bhori and global investment bank Goldman Sachs has forecast that the price of gold could exceed USD 4,900 per ounce in spot market by the end of 2026; if this scenario materialises, the corresponding price of 22-carat gold in Bangladesh could surpass Tk 250,000 per bhori.

In the international market, gold prices have surged to over USD 3,950 per ounce (equivalent to 2.43 bhori), briefly touching USD 3,977 — the highest level in history. Analysts predict that the metal could soon cross USD 4,000 per ounce, setting a new milestone.

Goldman Sachs, which previously projected gold to reach USD 4,300 per ounce by December 2026, revised its forecast on Monday, saying prices are now expected to exceed USD 4,900 per ounce by the end of next year.

We see the risks to our upgraded gold price forecast as still skewed to the upside on net, because private sector diversification into the relatively small gold market may boost ETF holdings above our rates-implied estimate,” Goldman said in its report.

Based on Goldman’s calculations, if gold prices climb to USD 4,900 per ounce and the exchange rate remains around Tk 122 per dollar, each bhori (22-carat) could cost about Tk 246,000 in Bangladesh by December 2026. Factoring in the Bangladesh Jewellers Association’s (BAJUS) pricing model, the figure could cross Tk 250,000 per bhori.

The entire scenario depends on global trends,” said Masudur Rahman, Chairman of BAJUS Standing Committee on Pricing and Price Monitoring.

With central banks increasing their gold purchases and ETF holdings expanding steadily, prices are likely to rise further,” he added.

Responding to queries about possible market manipulation, Masudur ruled out any syndication, saying, “There’s no room for syndicates in gold pricing — local prices are regularly adjusted in line with global movements.”

Goldman Sachs expects central bank purchases to average 80 metric tonnes in 2025 and 70 tonnes in 2026, noting that emerging market central banks will continue diversifying their reserves into gold.

Western ETF holdings are also expected to increase as the U.S. Federal Reserve is projected to cut interest rates by 100 basis points by mid-2026.

In Bangladesh, gold prices have been adjusted 61 times so far this year — raised 43 times and reduced 18 times. In 2024, prices were adjusted 62 times, with 35 upward revisions.

Given the rapid rise in both global and domestic markets, industry insiders say reaching Tk 2.5 lakh per bhori by next year would not be surprising. However, sales have already dropped by nearly half as buyers are increasingly priced out.

People need to change how they view gold,” said Masudur. “It’s no longer just jewellery — it should now be seen as a major investment instrument.

In September alone, gold prices jumped by over Tk 20,000 per bhori. Those who bought just a month ago could now sell at that profit, reinforcing gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset amid economic uncertainty, Masud concluded.